US coronavirus deaths predicted to peak by mid-April if all states impose restrictions

Even if the entire nation makes an all-out effort to restrict contact, coronavirus deaths will peak in the next two weeks, with patients overwhelming hospitals in most states, according to a University of Washington study.
Despite its grim outlook, the study offers more optimism than other high-profile projections in terms of how many hospital beds and ventilators the nation will need to battle COVID-19 in the coming months.


The study, which was released last week and updated Tuesday, also provides a state-by-state forecast for when demands on hospitals and deaths could summit.

Nationally, the University of Washington model predicts a peak daily death toll of 2,214 in mid-April, with a total of 84,000 Americans dead by the end of summer. That’s more than twice the lives claimed during the 2018-19 flu season, which killed 34,000 people, according to the latest available data from the CDC

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But that figure represents the model’s most likely estimate. The range of scenarios spans from 36,000 deaths to more than 152,000, according to the research team led by Christopher Murray, founder and chair of the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The daily death toll likely won’t dip below 100 before June 11, the study predicts.

But that's only if all 50 states take three of at least four major steps this week: Closing schools, ending non-essential services, sheltering in place, and imposing strict travel restrictions

If they don’t, then of course we have to revise upward their forecasts,” Murray said. The earlier those steps are implemented, the bigger their impact on the outcome, he said. “If we’re putting in social distancing, it will change the trajectory of the epidemic.”